Why China Doesn’t Want the US and Iran to Make Peace [Opinion]

…

From China’s perspective, sustained Iran-U.S. tension – short of full-scale war – can be strategically advantageous. One plausible scenario is a prolonged standoff marked by periodic incidents, such as the downing of drones or maritime harassment, that keeps Washington focused on the Middle East. Such a dynamic would tie down U.S. military and political attention, potentially giving Beijing greater freedom of action in the Indo-Pacific, particularly with respect to coercive pressure on Taiwan.

…

A genuine diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran – whether on the nuclear issue, domestic repression, or both – would also complicate China’s strategy. Improved Iran-U.S. relations could reduce Tehran’s reliance on Beijing and weaken their shared interest in countering American power. To be sure, greater regional stability would benefit China economically, particularly by safeguarding energy flows and investment opportunities. But strategically, a less isolated Iran would be a less useful partner for Beijing.

…

Web archive link